The D Zone

Monday, February 6, 2017

Class of 2017 Division 1 FBS Offered Players Review, analyzing all of the data

The D Zone has logged every offer a player has received in Michigan since they've been recruited. Michigan signee, Josh Ross out of Saint Mary's was offered in October 2013 by Oklahoma.  So to put that in perspective there have been 1,367 offers total to the Class of 2017 prior to National Signing Day.  We solely reported many of these offers, so we have definite data to validate these numbers.  Also before we continue, it's important to note colleges cannot send written offers until a players senior year, but since that time only 23 new total offers were extended, prior to them becoming Seniors there were 671 offers extended to the Class and as you'll see an important variable made at least 6 of those 23 offers happen.



Lets review the basic data:

  • 695 Division 1 FBS offers were extended to 91 different different players
  • Commits: Just because a player was offered doesn't mean that offer is on the table on signing day. Some players are given deadlines to commit, some are given goals to achieve before they commit, and others are not the right fit, from players committing elsewhere on a lower tier or walk-on elsewhere.
    • All commits noted if they didn't sign with an explanation
      • Central Michigan - 17 (4 walk-ons)
      • Western Michigan - 13 (1 walk-on / 1 grayshirt)
      • Michigan - 12 (4 walk-ons)
      • Michigan State - 11 (5 walk-ons / 1 grayshirt)
      • Eastern Michigan - 4 (1 walk-on)
      • Kent State - 4
      • Miami, Ohio - 3
      • Minnesota - 3
      • Air Force - 2 (Don't announce players until on campus)
      • Iowa State - 2
      • Missouri - 2
      • Navy - 2 (Don't announce players until on campus)
      • Northern Illinois - 2
      • Syracuse - 2
      • Toledo - 2 (1 is unsigned)
      • Arizona - 1
      • Ball State - 1
      • Bowling Green State - 1
      • Buffalo - 1
      • Cincinnati - 1
      • Nebraska - 1
      • Northwestern - 1 (1 walk-on)
      • Penn State - 1
      • Virginia - 1 (1 is unsigned)
      • Virginia Tech - 1
      • Washington State - 1
      • Wisconsin - 1
  • 671 offers were verbal before they could be written, it's not that important to determine exact number, but many players were committed or had their final 2-5 prior to their offers being written.
  • (Biggest takeaway - Once a player becomes a Senior he can receive written offers
  • 23 offers were sent after a player became a Senior.  Of those 23, only 4 received their first offer in that time frame. 
    • 13 were already committed
    • Will Rodgers transferred mid-year from Colorado, so his data is included from when it occurred, but it wasn't from the time he was back in Michigan.
      • This includes 5 of the 23 offers
    • Minnesota flipped 3 players when PJ Fleck took over that job who received their 1st offer offer from Minnesota in the process.
      • Had that not happened, Minnesota wouldn't have offered 3 more players and Western Michigan would not have offered 3 more as well. 
        • 6 total difference chain effect from coaching change - at least
  • Most individual offered players by conference / unique teams / total teams overall in conference (Just to show the average in conference, not a meaningful variable)
    1. PSL - 12 / 2 --- 16
    2. CHSL - 13 / 6 --- 14
    3. Ottawa Kent - 10 / 6 --- 49
    4. SEC - 8 / 4 --- 12
    5. WWAC - 7 / 3 --- 12
    6. OAA  - 7 / 4 --- 25
    7. KLAA - 6 / 4 --- 24
    8. MAC - 6 / 4 --- 35
    9. SVL - 5 / 4 --- 14
    10. Independents - 3 / 2 --- 17
    11. SAC - 3 / 2 --- 18
    12. SWAC - 2 / 2 --- 11
    13. CAAC - 2 / 2 --- 20
    14. Tri-Valley - 2 / 2 --- 24
    15. Big North, NMFL, Michigan Metro, Michigan Independent, GAC, and Great Northern UP --- 1
      • 20 different conferences
  • Cass Tech had the most offered players with 10
    • Saint Mary's was #2 with 5 Seniors with an FBS offer
    • No one had 4
    • 5 teams had 3
    • 15 teams had 2
    • 32 teams had 1
  • Offers by month:
    • Freshman Year:
      • October - 2
      • February - 1
      • April - 1
      • May - 2
      • June - 5
      • July - 3
    • Sophomore Year:
      • October - 1
      • November - 3
      • December - 2
      • January - 6
      • February - 10
      • March - 8
      • April - 33
      • May - 21
      • June - 32
      • July - 19
      • August - 3
    • Junior Year:
      • September - 20
      • October - 25
      • November - 26
      • December - 24
      • January - 55
      • February - 131
      • March - 80
      • April - 62
      • May - 42
      • June - 43
      • July - 7
      • August - 4
    • Senior Year:
      • September - 3
      • October - 3
      • November - 3
      • December - 3
      • January - 11
        • Explanation high amounts of offers from January - June is an easy one:
          • Colleges are hosting unofficial visits for junior days, spring practices, etc. to build relationships with players
          • Obviously 1 day camps at colleges / satellite camps are the other
  • The following schools sent the most offers
  • (Some dates for our records couldn't be confirmed, so we're missing 19 unreported offers)
    • Central Michigan - 42
    • Western Michigan - 40
    • Eastern Michigan - 38
    • Toledo - 32
    • Ball State - 30
    • Miami, Ohio - 29
    • Buffalo - 27
    • Bowling Green State - 24
    • Kent State - 23
    • Iowa State - 18
    • Syracuse - 17
    • Cincinnati - 16
    • Michigan - 13
    • Michigan State - 13
    • Nebraska - 12
    • Northern Illinois - 11
    • Indiana - 10
    • Tennessee - 10
    • Ohio - 10
    • Arizona - 9
    • Penn State - 9
    • Pittsburgh - 9
    • Purdue - 9
    • Wisconsin - 9
    • Illinois - 8
    • Minnesota - 8
    • Louisville - 7
    • Notre Dame - 7
    • Ohio State - 7
    • West Virginia - 7
    • Air Force - 6
    • Akron - 6
    • Colorado - 6
    • Kentucky - 6
    • Iowa - 6
    • Miami, Florida - 6
    • Oregon - 6
    • Arkansas - 5
    • Missouri - 5
    • Navy - 5
    • Oklahoma - 5
    • Ole Miss - 5
    • UCLA - 5
    • Virginia Tech - 5
    • Alabama - 4
    • Arizona State - 4
    • LSU - 4
    • North Carolina - 4
    • Northwestern - 4
    • Auburn - 3
    • Boston College - 3
    • California - 3
    • Duke - 3
    • Florida - 3
    • Massachusetts - 3
    • Mississippi State - 3
    • North Carolina State - 3
    • Rutgers - 3
    • Texas A&M - 3
    • USC - 3
    • Army - 2
    • East Carolina - 2
    • Maryland - 2
    • South Carolina - 2
    • Stanford - 2
    • Temple - 2
    • Vanderbilt - 2
    • Virginia - 2
    • Washington State - 2
    • Baylor - 1
    • BYU - 1
    • Central Florida - 1
    • Clemson - 1
    • Florida State - 1
    • Georgia - 1
    • Houston - 1
    • Memphis - 1
    • Utah - 1
    • Washington - 1
      • 671 total - See above parenthesis 

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